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New Scientific
Consensus: Arctic is Warming At Unprecedented Rate, Burning Of Fossil
Fuels is Culprit
Natural Resources Defense Council, November 10, 2004
Ice Melt to
Accelerate Warming, Cause Sea Level Rise Dangerous to Coastal
States
Pressure on U.S. To Act
WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 8,
2004) ” The Arctic is warming rapidly, with
the loss of polar ice projected to accelerate global warming as well as
contribute to sea level rise and flooding, according to a comprehensive
four-year scientific study of the region conducted by an international
team
of 300 scientists that was officially released today.
According to the scientists'
most conservative estimates, about half the
summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this
century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as
the
region warms an additional 7ºF to 13ºF by 2100. Rising sea levels are
already observed and are predicted to accelerate as warming continues,
according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(ACIA).
The study confirms that the
warming is human-caused, through heat-trapping
emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The United States is the
largest
world contributor of those emissions, yet has failed to enact limits.
The report comes out at a time
of increasing pressure on the Bush
administration to enact U.S. emissions reductions. During election week,
the
Queen of England privately pressured UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to press
the U.S. on global warming policy, and she opened a "climate change
summit"
of senior government officials from the UK and Germany to discuss the
problem. Russian president Vladimir Putin signed the Kyoto Protocol, thus
bringing the accord into effect worldwide.
"President Bush needs to change
his approach to global warming in light of
the damage already being seen in the Arctic," said Dr. Daniel Lashof,
Science Director of the NRDC Climate Center. "It is now clear we have to
cut
the pollution that causes global warming to prevent dangerous changes in
the
climate. The purely voluntary approach taken in the President's first term
will leave the nation and the world in great danger from the threat of
global warming."
The assessment was commissioned
by the Arctic Council, a ministerial
intergovernmental forum comprised of eight nations, including the United
States, and six Indigenous Peoples organizations; and the International
Arctic Science Committee, an international scientific organization
appointed
by 18 national academies of science. The assessment's findings and
projections are being released today and will be presented in detail at a
scientific symposium in Reykjavik, Iceland starting tomorrow.
"The impacts of global warming
are apparent now in the Arctic," said Robert
Corell, chair of the ACIA. "The Arctic is experiencing some of the most
rapid and severe impacts on earth. The impacts of global warming on the
region and the globe are projected to increase substantially in the years
to
come."
Additional findings include:
In Alaska, Western Canada, and
Eastern Russia average winter temperatures
have increased as much as 4ºF to 7ºF in the past 50 years, and are
projected to rise 7ºF to 14ºF over the next 100 years. Polar sea ice
during the summer is projected to decline by 50 percent by the end of this
century with some models showing near-complete disappearance of summer sea
ice. This is very likely to have devastating consequences for polar bears,
ice-living seals, and local people for whom these animals are a primary
food
source. At the same time, reduced sea ice extent is likely to increase
marine access to some of the region's resources. Warming over Greenland
will
lead to substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, contributing to
global sea-level rise at an increasing rate. Greenland's ice sheets
contain
enough water to eventually raise sea level by about 23 feet. In the United
States, low-lying coastal states like Florida and Louisiana are
particularly
susceptible to rising sea levels. Should the Arctic Ocean become ice-free
in
summer, it is likely that polar bears and some seal species would be
driven
to extinction.
Arctic climate changes present
serious challenges to the health and food
security of some Indigenous Peoples, challenging the survival of some
cultures. Over the next 100 years, global warming is expected to
accelerate,
contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes,
and the Assessment has documented that many of these changes have already
begun. The assessment's projections are based on a moderate estimate of
future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and
incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment was formally initiated in 2000 at the
Ministerial Meeting of the Arctic Council at Point Barrow, Alaska as a
joint
project between the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science
Committee. As specified in the Barrow Declaration, the goal of the ACIA is
to "evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability and change
and
increased ultraviolet radiation, and support policy-making processes and
the
work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." The Arctic Council
directed ACIA to address "environmental, human health, social, cultural,
and
economic impacts and consequences, including policy recommendations."
©
2004 Natural Resources Defense Council. All Rights Reserved.
www.nrdc.org
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