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A different pattern in the Arctic than the rest of the world
"We were getting some numbers of changes in the Arctic that just didn’t seem to fit into this slower pattern that we were seeing on the rest of the planet," explains Robert Corell, who chaired the "Arctic Climate Impact Assessment" (ACIA). These anomalies provided the point of departure for the four-year project.
By Jorunn Gran
Source: http://www.cicero.uio.no/fulltext.asp?id=3251&lang=en  

The ACIA project had clear goals: Researchers that were involved in the assessment were to compile and evaluate knowledge about climate variation, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their impacts. A further explicit aim was to conclude with reliable information that could be used by decision-makers, organizations, and people in the Arctic regions. The research is meant to form a solid foundation that can be used in decision-making processes and by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their future work on climate change issues.

Warnings from Indigenous Communities
Robert Corell is Chair of ACIA’s Steering Committee, where he represents the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC).

The ACIA report was described by many as unique because of the degree to which it takes into account the observations and knowledge of indigenous people.

"The indigenous people were really saying, 'Hey, something is going on up here that is quite different, quite unusual, and we can’t predict the weather the way we used to,'" says Corell.

Climate change right now
Corell points out the crucial difference between climate change in the Arctic and the rest of the world:

"What’s different about the Arctic versus the planet as a whole is that climate change is absolutely occurring now. It’s occurring on scales that we have not seen in human times, and two to three times faster than on the rest of the planet. We are talking an increase between four and ten degrees centigrade over the next century. Those are gigantic numbers."

Sea-level rise
In connection with publication of the key findings from the ACIA report, Corell has pointed out that the Greenland Ice Sheet can play a larger role that previously assumed with respect to the planet’s sea level. Model projections suggest that the sea level will rise between 10 and 90 centimeters by 2010. Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet has previously been projected to contribute only four millimeters to the rising sea level. Now, however, Corell says that meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet alone can raise the seal level by ten centimeters in the next century—in addition to the water from the melting of Arctic glaciers.

"Greenland contains enough water to raise the sea by seven meters," says Corell. "This means that, under these projections, the sea could rise a meter every 50 to 100 years. A sea-level rise of one meter is a gigantic number. Bangladesh will lose about 40 percent of its land mass. Pacific islands such as Tuvalu will be completely under water, and much of Florida and southern Miami will be inundated with a one-meter sea-level rise. You can imagine what 7 meters over the next several hundred years might mean."

Melting ice
One of the key findings in ACIA is that the ocean areas in the Arctic will face a significant reduction in sea ice. The scientists conclude that the summer ice has shrunk by 15 to 20 percent over the last 30 years. This is a trend that will accelerate, and the melting of the sea ice will have a tremendous impact on the people that are used to traveling on the ice and for animals that live large parts of their life on or in the vicinity of the ice. For people living in the Arctic coastal areas, the reduced amount of sea ice also have indirect effects.

"All the Arctic is warming, and as a consequence the ice that used to protect the shores from the severe storms is not there. Something like over 180 villages of indigenous people in Alaska alone are going to have to be moved over the next 10 or 20 years, and it is just because the ice that used to be there protecting the shore is not there anymore," says Corell.

A new world
Less ice will mean greater accessibility. Many are therefore hoping for a golden age in the northern regions, when previously ice-covered areas can be navigated by ship—at the same time as reduced ice-cover will give access to oil and gas reserves that until now have been unreachable for us. Twenty-five percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves are expected to be found in the Arctic regions. Large natural gas fields lie in the northwest Russian ocean areas.

"Our models suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for upwards of four to six months every year sometime towards the end of this century. This will have huge consequences. We are talking about opening up sea routes that didn’t exist before, so you are going to see shipping occurring between the Far East and European markets that are 45 percent shorter than going through the Suez Canal. This has huge implications for the Arctic region. Villages will turn into small towns, and small towns will become cities when oil and gas activity increases," says Corell.

After ACIA
Cicerone asked Corell what the consequences of the ACIA report will be:

"I believe now that the ACIA Overview report has been released and has attracted the broad range of interest, that there is an emerging recognition that the global challenges of climate change must be addressed. For us in the ACIA Team, we should continue to expand our understanding of the impacts and consequences of climate change in the Arctic and to engage the policy community in the profound task of taking knowledge to action. The up-coming meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 10) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is just one of many venues to foster that dialog. Therefore, as requested by the Ministers of the Arctic Council, the ACIA will evolve towards a more permanent organizational arrangement to foster research, monitoring, and assessment of climate change across the Arctic."

Increasing commitment
Cicerone also asked Corell to what degree the conclusions of the ACIA report will have an impact on political decisions or decision-makers.

"In the past months, the results of the Assessment have increasingly engaged the political and policies communities across the Arctic in focused discussions. We have been asked to meet with Parliaments, their senior leaders, and their policy committees, as well as leaders of government as both national and regional levels. There is evidence that this will not only continue, but expand. Further, industry and business is similarly engaging in the discussions to consider ways to move knowledge to action in order to address the warming now known to be the consequence of greenhouse gas emissions. I’m optimistic that these trends will continue," concludes Corell.

© 2004 Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO). All rights reserved.